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The world-wide pharmaceutical market is worth 307 bill($) in 1998 according to IMS HEALTH’s market estimate in Pharmaceutical World Review, a year end analysis of the sales dynamics of the pharmaceutical market. This represents a 3.6% increase over last year. The USA market continues to drive the growth with an 11% increase, while Europe grew at 4.6%. Australasia, Africa, and Asia (A/A/A) declined by -6.8% and Latin America recorded a slight increase of 2.2 %.

Based on the IMS Health audited sales channels used in Pharmaceutical World Review there were notable performances from individual countries. In Europe, Poland sustained strong growth of 44% at constant exchange rates, Sweden and Czech Republic grew at 16% and Ireland at 15%.

In A/A/A the economic crisis and currency devaluation have taken their toll. At US$ exchange rates, Korea, Thailand and Indonesia all experienced a decline in excess of 30%. Without the exchange rate fluctuations, Korea grew 4%, Indonesia 33%, Thailand -15% and Japan -1%.

US$ Growth of top ten markets based on market estimates

1998 Pharma Market Estimates Billions($)

The top ten therapy classes accounted for nearly 30 percent of the total world market in 1998 (SEE TABLE). Three out of the leading ten, Cholesterol & Triglyceride Reducers, Antidepressants and Antipsychotics, are growing at 20 percent or more, year-over-year.

The Antiulcerant class, is valued at $12.9 billion, and remains the leading therapeutic class world-wide in 1998, as it has for the past eight years. Losec (omeprazole), the world’s leading antiulcerant product, accounts for nearly 30 percent of all sales in this class.

The Cholesterol & Triglyceride Reducers class, grew at a very strong 20 percent, placing this class at 2 in the rankings. Antidepressants grew by an even greater 21 percent, placing this class of drugs in the 3 position.

Outside of the top ten classes, by far the fastest growing sub-class is Erectile Dysfunction, which grew by 277 percent in 1998, driven by the blockbuster launch of Viagra. This class is worth $0.7 billion, and is ranked in 79^th place. The second fastest growing class is compounds used to treat heart indications, the Angiotensin II Antagonists. Currently in 56^th place, Angiotensin II Antagonists grew last year by 104 percent to $1.1 billion. This has been mirrored by a slow down in growth in older cardiovascular drug classes such as Calcium Antgaonists -1% and the first generation Ace Inhibitors 1%. Other therapeutic classes to feel a slowdown include the traditional H2 Antagonists down 18% and non-narcotic analgesics declining 5%.

WORLDWIDE LEADING THERAPEUTIC CLASSES 1998
Audited Sales by 3rd Level Therapeutic Class

Losec the top antiulcerant drug, despite the generic threat has maintained solid growth at 21%, recording sales of $4.4billion. Prozac, Seroxat and Zoloft, three antidepressants in the top 10 products, grew, 10%, 24% and 19% respectively , reflecting the importance of this market. The real star in the top 10 is Lipitor, a late entry into the market in its class but in less than 2 years is ranked number 5 world-wide with sales of $1.9billion. Co-marketing with Pfizer, helped Warner Lambert reach its target audience very quickly with a favourable drug profile in the Cholesterol Reducing drug class. This drug, together with its new antidiabetic Rezulin, (up 97%over last year) has helped Warner Lambert climb to 15th in the rankings with a 37% increase. Pfizer grew 19%, fuelled by Viagra sales that hit $608m in its first 8 months on the market.

Other new drugs that put in notable achievements are Lilly’s Zyprexa with sales of $1.28billion, up 95% and Merck’s cardiovascular product Cozaar which still grew 45%, after 94% growth on the previous year, despite more Angiotensin II Antagonists hitting the market.

Other relatively new launches in the asthma market have not fared as well. None of the leukotriene antagonists have quite achieved their potential in a market still dominated by Inhaled steroids and beta II antagonists. Merck's Singulair has had a promising start reaching $152m in its first year of launch. Zeneca's Accolate has had slower growth reaching $126m after 2 year’s on the market.

In the cancer market Rhone Poulenc Rorer’s docetaxel, a major competitor to Bristol-Myres Squibb’s Taxol, has seen sales double to $189m, while the antiviral Viracept has single-handed brought Agouron into the top 100 Corporations worldwide with sales of $359m in 1998.

Top 6 New Product Launches 1998.